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 Post subject: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:06 am 
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It seems a lot of people are still not taking this pandemic seriously, so I thought it might be a good idea to give those people a wake-up call.

As a famous doctor recently said, 'I am not here to scare you out of your wits, I am here to scare you INTO your wits"

First, COVID-19 is NOT like a regular flu only just a bit more deadly. The REAL threat of this pandemic is how quickly it overwhelms the health system of ANY country that has not prepared for it.

See, 8.2-10% of all the infected need personalized VENTILATOR SUPPORT as they develop bilateral interstitial pneumonia (the mesh-like walls of the alveoli become inflamed). This is not just oxygen therapy, it's actually being connected to a ventilator that does the breathing for them. Without this they cannot get enough oxygen into their systems, their organs quickly begin to fail and they die.

Do not think for a moment that this disease only affects the elderly or the sick either. Li Wenliang, the Chinese doctor who first exposed what was happening in China has also died of the virus. He was only 31. Patient 1 in Italy, named only as Mattia, nearly died and he was only 38.

Now just do the math: in a BEST CASE scenario, when nothing is done 30% of the population becomes infected. In a country like the US, with a population of 327 million, this means nearly 100 million will experience this disease.

If 8.2% of those 100 million NEED ventilator support just to stay alive, do you really think the US has enough ventilators AND medical staff at hand to save the lives of 10 million people nearly all at once?

No health system in the world, no matter how advanced the country is, is prepared for such a rapid influx of critically ill patients. With cases DOUBLING everyday, the health system quickly becomes overwhelmed. There are not enough doctors, not enough material, not enough beds, not enough drugs.

Soon doctors have to choose who lives and who dies. The current death rate of 3.2%, high as it already is, will double or triple if people cannot get access to the ventilators and medical care they need to stay alive.

But not only that: with nearly all the medical resources being invested into this pandemic and hospitals overflowing with patients seeking help, treatment of OTHER critical diseases (and trauma events) will be HUGELY affected as well. Death rates will increase exponentially ACROSS all medical events and illnesses.

Are you beginning to understand now how serious this really is?

If you think this is a scenario too nightmarish to be true, please go read the letter of a desperate Italian doctor to his peers around the world. I will post the text below too.

This letter was written at a time where Italy 'ONLY' has 10,149 confirmed cases in a population of 60 million. Now imagine what will happen when ***hundreds of thousands*** of people get sick with the virus.

Here in Portugal we too felt safe, as if this was something that only happened to others or 'just a simple flu' and 'media are just trying to create a panic'. But just like the story of Peter and the Wolf, the real wolf eventually came.

Things got serious once we realized what was happening in Italy. We only have 41 confirmed cases here in Portugal as I am writing this, but (hopefully) the government is now beginning to take draconian measures and is going to close all schools this Friday. Children, although not very affected by the virus itself, are a tremendous infection vector, which is made even more serious by the fact that, with both parents working, it's usually the much more vulnerable elderly grand parents that pick them up from school.

Luckily we have a system here that allows for one of the parents to take up to 30 days off work to take care of a family member and still get paid in full.

Taiwan seems to be the exception to what is happening worldwide and seem to have the virus under control so far. This was only possible because they had been previously bitten by the SARS infection, and thus they already knew what to do and had the protocols and systems already in place to deal with a situation like this. They reacted very quickly with draconian measures, which prevented the virus from spreading until it was out of control. Taiwanese people, having lived through SARS, also took this measures really well.

So, guys, please take this very seriously. Do not panic, but do not dismiss this either: start preparing for what is coming. Avoid public places with lots of people, stock up with some food in case you need to quarantine or want to isolate yourselves. Get respiratory masks, they don't prevent the virus from getting through them but help spreading fluids if you are sick. Get alcohol gel while you still have access to it, alcohol over 70% pure is the only thing that can kill the virus and disinfecting hands is very important as the virus can survive up to 3 days on any material you touch. Here all the isopropyl alcohol has already disappeared from the shelves of supermarkets. Remember, if things go out of control the supply chain is going to be affected too.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus
PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:07 am 
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In full: Chilling message from medic in northern Italy


'I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

'First, Lombardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Australia and don't make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a third world country.

'The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200 per cent capacity.

'We've stopped all routine, all ORs [operating rooms] have been converted to ITUs [intensive treatment units] and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes.

'There are hundreds of patients with severe respiratory failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

'Patients above 65, or younger with comorbidities, are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I'm saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest.

'Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

'My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV [non-invasive ventilation]. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

'We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won't be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

1) A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED [emergency department] but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panic.

2) Some moderate respiratory failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great.

3) Tons of patients with moderate respiratory failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs [intensive care units] first, then NIVs, then CPAP [continuous positive airway pressure] hoods, then even O2 [oxygen].

4) Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can't be treated properly.

'Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe.

'If governments won't do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

'Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think 'that's bad dude' and then go out for dinner because you think you'll be safe.

'We have seen it, you won't be if you don't take it seriously. I really hope it won't be as bad as here but prepare.'

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus
PostPosted: Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:15 pm 
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While I absolutely agree that people in general and governments/authorities etc. most particularly do not take this affair even remotely seriously enough with few exceptions, I do think you are panicking just a bit here, Jorge. Let's get some perspective on Covid 19, ok. Overall so far, even in China, the mortality rate is way lower than SARS and even the annual winter flu. Some 80% of those infected only experience mild or very mild symptoms for a short time. Most at risk of serious consequences are the elderly, people with chronic illnesses and other underlying health issues, and medical personnel treating infected people. OTOH, what is also ignored in all this is that viri can and often do suddenly mutate and can become virulent and lethal.

What ought to be done by the authorities includes cancelling, until further notice, all sports and cultural and other events, close restaurants and take aways, impose travel restrictions - especially air travel - cancel all tourism, ban any gatherings of more than at most a handful of people, close all schools, colleges, and universities as well as all childcare, and if necessary put any towns, cities or even regions that are badly affected into lockdown, and introduce strict food and other essentials rationing. Masks are a waste of time - even if you could still get any - unless they are changed frequently, and even then, if you sneeze or cough, you still spread your pathogens. They merely give you a false sense of security.

What we most certainly do not need is for people to start panicking and to start panic buying and hoarding food and other essentials. This is already happening in several countries including here in the UK, where supermarket shelves are already completely empty of many food stuffs and hygiene/sanitary products (even bloody toilet paper - you'd think people have never heard of washing instead!).

As for things like washing hands, ordinary soap is all you need and thorough washing - inc. beyond the wrists - for about 3 -5 minutes, and drying with a paper towel if possible. (The 20 second advice given here is a complete joke!) If using an alcohol based cleaner/sanitiser, the same applies - 3 - 5 mins.

Above all, for goodness' sake, lets not panic! Just be sensible and use your common sense. We don't let anybody in for the time being, friends have been advised not to come, I am in lockdown and the madam only goes out briefly to do a little shopping early in the morning when necessary and otherwise stays home. We always keep a small stock of basics/essentials like flour, rice, pasta, pulses, tinned tomatoes etc., as well as frozen veg and cheese and home-made pickled chillies, as well as the most essential hygiene/sanitary goods that, at a push could keep us fed - if somewhat basic and perhaps monotonous - and hygienic for up to three months.

Just plain old common sense is all that's needed. Doctors are human too, and that good Italian doctor, no doubt under immense pressure and stress, would appear to have become just a bit hysterical, IMO.

And articles like "Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now" do not help at all - they merely serve to spread panic and outright paranoia - the last thing we need.

So, DON'T PANIC FFS! OK? :)

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:03 am 
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It's a thin line between love and hate. It's also a thin line between being prepared and panicking. :)

I agree with you that people should stay calm, but what I have been witnessing is that to many this means not taking what is happening seriously enough. As such they keep gathering in large crowds and thus SPREADING THE VIRUS even further.

Even if it does not affect them personally in a critical way, the infection they end up spreading to OTHERS might cause quite a few deaths, making them indirectly responsible seeing how these deaths could have been avoided had they been just a bit more responsible. This might mean their own elderly parents, uncles, etc...

As I stated in my first post, the problem with this pandemic is NOT JUST the mortality rate (which is high enough as it is). If it goes out of control, it WILL OVERWHELM all hospitals and all medical staff. People don't seem to realize that no country or health system in the world is ready for an outbreak that brings a sudden influx of people INTO THE INTENSIVE CARE UNITS.

As a side effect, mortality rates will increase all across the board: imagine you are in a traffic accident and you need a ventilator to save your life. Tough luck, they are all tied up with COVID-19 patients and you die when you would have otherwise survived. Likewise, you have a heart attack, something that needs a response in minutes: unfortunately the medical staff is so overwhelmed that you have to wait HOURS instead of minutes to be seen by a doctor (and that is assuming an ambulance is actually available to transport you to the hospital). You will be waiting together with other patients, many infected with this disease already. Pre-scheduled surgeries will no longer be made due to lack of means and extraordinarily high risk of hospital infections, etc, etc...

You mention China getting this under control, but people need to realize some VERY IMPORTANT factors: a lot if not most of the medical material we use in our hospitals these days (including ventilators, etc...) comes from CHINA. This means that they can quickly revamp their OWN production rates (which is exactly what they did) and quickly build or create more of everything.

Western Civilization cannot do that. We outsourced most of the things we use to China (including most medication) and now we will be paying the price. If we run out of ventilators, we cannot simply make more like the Chinese did.

Furthermore, the other countries that seem to have this under relative control are those who took draconian measures pretty early (like Taiwan, for instance). Italy did not and their health system is now collapsing, the whole country is in lockdown and they had 200 deaths in one day alone!

So, DO NOT TAKE THIS LIGHTLY. READ THE LETTER OF THE ITALIAN DOCTOR AGAIN. LET IT SINK IN. DO NOT THINK FOR A MINUTE THAT IT CANNOT HAPPEN IN YOUR COUNTRY.

This is not about panicking, it's about protecting yourself and your loved ones. Buying stuff so you can have a full pantry is NOT packing, it's actually quite smart: it means that if necessary you and your family can isolate yourselves at home until the worst blows over (hopefully 2-3 weeks of nearly everyone doing the same).

For instance, you gave good advice, but it would be far better for your madam to do most of the shopping in one go than spread that same shopping over several outings - the reasoning is very simple: every time she goes out she is exposing herself to other people and therefore to the virus.

All this reminds me of two fables: Peter and the Wolf (eventually there REALLY was a wolf but nobody believed it anymore) and the Ant and the Grasshopper (the grasshopper preferred to drink and party during Summer instead of getting ready for Winter like the ant did. When he finally realized what he had done, it was too late).

In this thread I will be posting links to articles that I find interesting and useful.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:59 am 
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The Korean Clusters

How a single Korean managed to infect over 1,000 people

South Korea managed to avoid a major outbreak with only 30 people contracting the virus, despite many interactions between those later confirmed as being sick and hundreds more people being identified as contacts of the sick patients.

This changed with the emergence of “Patient 31.”

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:13 am 
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Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now


How many cases of coronavirus will there be in your area?
What will happen when these cases materialize?
What should you do?
When?

Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:27 am 
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“I Don’t Think the Virus Can Be Stopped Anymore”


In an interview, Harvard Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch explains why the novel coronavirus is so dangerous – and the need for drastic measures to stop its spread.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:14 pm 
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No Jorge, panic buying is not a smart thing to do - it is egotistical and downright anti-social. It is typical of the 'me, myself and I' society that we live in, unfortunately. Everyone who panic buys and hoards means two others are left out in the cold with nothing to buy. Fortunately, some supermarkets here in the UK have started limiting purchases of many items to one per shopper - not enough, but at least it's a start. Proper rationing is what is sorely needed. If panic buying and hoarding continues, you'll see a point coming when people will kill each other over a loaf of bread or a can of sardines, or even a bloody toilet roll for goodness' sake.

While this is a pandemic, it is, at least for now, a relatively non-virulent one. Yes, it spreads more and more and further and further, but statistically, it is not *that* serious for the vast majority of people infected who will only experience mild symptoms if any. Even among the elderly and chronically ill etc., the majority only experience mild to moderate symptoms, and among the tiny minority who develop more serious symptoms the actual death rate is quite small - indeed, a smaller percentage of people die than of annual winter flu and the overall death toll so far from Covid 19 is substantially lower than the number that have died from flu.

Yes, I do personally feel vulnerable but we take every possible precaution etc., and the madam only pops out once a week with minimal risk.

And yes, I do agree that the responsible thing for the authorities to do would be to take the most draconian measures, as I outlined previously, and bugger economic consequences. I'm a great F1 enthusiast, but like all sporting events the season should be completely suspended for now. The Oz GP still going ahead without McLaren is the height of absurdity and obscenity in addition to being completely irresponsible, IMO.

But, even if we take a worst case scenario and Covid 19 and its consequences were to take out say 3-5% of the global population, that's still just a drop in the ocean when there are at least 4 billion too many of us anyway. (This planet can reasonably only sustain a max. population of around 3 billion, after all!)

Yes, people should be prepared, but what we are seeing at the moment - esp. online and in the popular media - is the spreading of panic and paranoia, and that includes the somewhat hysterical doc in Italy. And that only makes the whole situation worse and harder to manage.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:02 pm 
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Ric, let me be blunt: the Spanish flu of 1918 is well known because it is considered to be the most deadly pandemic of the century. Estimates vary, as the three studies go from 17.8 to 50, possibly 100 million.

Although very different from this, as the Spanish flu was actually more deadly to healthy people (people died not from the virus itself, but from the body's excessive reaction to it), the mortality rate WAS THE SAME OR LESS.

In Brazil's Rio, for instance, in 15 days the Spanish flu infected 600,000 people and killed 15,000. This is a mortality rate of 2.5% and the speed at which it spread is what happens when you take no measures to try and control it.

COVID-19 has a mortality rate of 3.2%. But this is assuming ITU treatment is available for the 8.2% of the infected that go critical. Without ventilator and intensive care support, the mortality rate doubles - don't take my word for it, you can already see this in Italy's current mortality rate.

With the nearly complete collapse of their health system, the mortality rate in Italy is currently 6.2% !!!!

THIS IS NOT 'JUST A FLU'!

Right now my country's PM (Portugal) has given the order to close all schools. France has done the same. Discos have been closed too, and heavy restrictions are being placed on other public places such as malls and restaurants.

All these and other measures are going to have a tremendous economic impact, as well as a social impact in the normal every day life of people. Italy is in COMPLETE lock down.

THIS IS NOT SOMETHING YOU DO BECAUSE OF A 'SIMPLE FLU'! SO WAKE THE HELL UP, PEOPLE!

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:04 pm 
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Jorge, nowhere did I say Covid-19 is a simple flu or even like one, to be clear. What I did say is that so far, it has claimed fewer lives than the most recent seasonal flu or even the current one.

Leaving things up to people - as seems to be happening in a lot of countries, inc. more or less here in the UK where the government seems to be treating this pandemic as a joke - is not a good plan, especially not in our age of the 'me, myself and Irene' society. Governments - national, regional and local - worldwide need to pull their finger out and impose draconian measures to minimise the effects of the pandemic, imposing a state of emergency and even, if necessary, martial law. The US and UK seem to be, pardon the expression, pissing in the wind so far and that's going to come back to bite them on the arse. In overall terms we still have the best health service on the planet - bar Cuba and perhaps China - but in terms of ICU beds, ventilators, ventilator beds, etc., we alas have just about the fewest per head of the population in Europe. So if and when things start to get really ugly, they'll get very ugly indeed. And the warning is now out - potentially, the pandemic could last a whole year or longer even.

Nothing less than a - more or less - complete lockdown worldwide is going to do. And bugger economic and social consequences, the former of which would no doubt be immense (and may finally kill off capitalism - hooray!) while the latter would be far less than those that would result from insufficient action. It's not people that need to wake up Jorge, it's governments, bloody politicians. While individuals may be perfectly sensible and intelligent, people as a group, as a mass, are imbeciles, sheep-like except that sheep are more intelligent. (Millennia of religious and ruling class oppression have made them so.)

No, people don't need to wake up. Governments DO!

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:43 am 
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But when governments do not take this seriously enough, we, the people, need to act to protect ourselves. But for that we first need to understand what we are dealing with, and then we need to change our normal routines which is NOT EASY - fear is therefore the great motivator.

The only thing we can do at this point is isolate ourselves and our families at home to try and delay the spread of this virus - seeing it is already too late to stop it - so the Health Services are able to cope with this outbreak instead of simply being completely overwhelmed as it happened in Italy.

I see now that governments everywhere - and people in general - seem to be FINALLY taking this seriously enough (still, too little, too late?) so I'm going to remove the 'global' status of this thread.

Anyone who wishes to ask questions or just wants to talk about this, please feel free to do so on this thread.

Stay safe!

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:11 am 
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winstep wrote:
But when governments do not take this seriously enough, we, the people, need to act to protect ourselves. But for that we first need to understand what we are dealing with, and then we need to change our normal routines which is NOT EASY - fear is therefore the great motivator.

The only thing we can do at this point is isolate ourselves and our families at home to try and delay the spread of this virus - seeing it is already too late to stop it - so the Health Services are able to cope with this outbreak instead of simply being completely overwhelmed as it happened in Italy.

I see now that governments everywhere - and people in general - seem to be FINALLY taking this seriously enough (still, too little, too late?) so I'm going to remove the 'global' status of this thread.

Anyone who wishes to ask questions or just wants to talk about this, please feel free to do so on this thread.

Stay safe!

Alas, I don't think most governments are taking Covid-19 anywhere near seriously enough yet Jorge, with few exceptions. Also alas, people as a mass cannot be trusted to do the right thing for themselves - they'll only think about themselves and don't give a flying fart about anybody else, and you get things like we're already seeing - panic buying and hoarding, people still going on holidays (although that is now being more and more impeded by border closures, flight bans, airlines and holiday companies cancelling, etc.), generally travelling when not necessary, still attending mass events where these aren't banned yet, and so on and on. Nope, sorry, as a mass humans are incredibly stupid. Otherwise, they'd have got rid of hocus-pocus oppressors like religions long ago, and kings and other ruling classes, and capitalism ages ago, for example.

Keep well and keep safe, everyone.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:42 am 
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Thanks, you too.

Alas, it looks like your government (UK) is just going to let people die and the NHS collapse by doing nothing. Kind of letting natural selection take its course, really. :evil: :roll: Good luck.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:48 am 
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On the other hand, I guess it couldn't get worse than this either:

Image

Image

Image

Chaos in American airports with Americans coming back from Europe.

Thousand of people coming from countries where infections are high (so some surely already infected), mostly unprotected and in extremely close proximity with each other. Wow.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19, Corona Virus - READ THIS NOW!!!
PostPosted: Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:14 am 
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“Why Outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to flatten the curve”


Excellent article by the Washington Post, makes it very easy to understand and visualize what is happening and how changes affect outcomes.

The spread can be slowed, public health professionals say, if people practice "social distancing" by avoiding public spaces and generally limiting their movement.

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